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Factors controlling the three-decade long rise in cyanobacteria biomass in a eutrophic shallow lake

dc.contributor.authorCremona, Fabien
dc.contributor.authorTuvikene, Lea
dc.contributor.authorHaberman, Juta
dc.contributor.authorNõges, Peeter
dc.contributor.authorNõges, Tiina
dc.contributor.departmentCentre for Limnology. Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. Estonian University of Life Scienceseng
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-09T12:54:04Z
dc.date.available2022-11-09T12:54:04Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractWe aimed at quantifying the importance of limnological variables in the decadal rise of cyanobacteria biomass in shallow hemiboreal lakes. We constructed estimates of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) biomass in a large, eutrophic lake (Estonia, Northeastern Europe) from a database comprising 28 limnological variables and spanning more than 50 years of monitoring. Using a dual-model approach consisting in a boosted regression trees (BRT) followed by a generalized least squares (GLS) model, our results revealed that six variables were most influential for assessing the variance of cyanobacteria biomass. Cyanobacteria response to nitrate concentration and rotifer abundance was negative, whereas it was positive to pH, temperature, cladoceran and copepod biomass. Response to total phosphorus (TP) and total phosphorus to total nitrogen ratio was very weak, which suggests that actual in-lake TP concentration is still above limiting values. The most efficient GLS model, which explained nearly two thirds (r2 = 0.65) of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass included nitrate concentration, water temperature and pH. The very high number of observations (maximum n = 525) supports the robustness of the models. Our results suggest that the decadal rise of blue-green algae in shallow lakes lies in the interaction between cultural eutrophication and global warming which bring in-lake physical and chemical conditions closer to cyanobacteria optima.eng
dc.description.abstractThis research was supported by Start-Up Per- sonal Research Grant PUT 777 to FC and IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research and by MARS project (Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress) funded under the EU 7th Framework Programme, Theme 6 (Environment including Climate Change), Contract No.: 603378 (http://www.mars- project.eu).eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by Start-Up Per- sonal Research Grant PUT 777 to FC and IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research and by MARS project (Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress) funded under the EU 7th Framework Programme, Theme 6 (Environment in- cluding Climate Change), Contract No.: 603378 (http://www.mars- project.eu).eng
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.publicationScience of the Total Environment 621 (2018) 352-359eng
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10492/7822
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.250
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.eng
dc.subjectphytoplanktoneng
dc.subjectnitrateseng
dc.subjectboosted regression treeseng
dc.subjectgeneralized least squares modeleng
dc.subjectzooplanktoneng
dc.subjectEstoniaeng
dc.subjectarticleseng
dc.titleFactors controlling the three-decade long rise in cyanobacteria biomass in a eutrophic shallow lakeeng
dc.typeArticleeng
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