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Analysis of the relationship between the weather index of fire danger and occurrences of rural fires. Case study: centro region of Portugal

dc.contributor.authorFernandez, P.
dc.contributor.authorBugalho, L.
dc.contributor.authorPedro, N.
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-27T07:12:09Z
dc.date.available2024-08-27T07:12:09Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.descriptionReceived: January 29th, 2024 ; Accepted: May 7th, 2024 ; Published: July 25th, 2024 ; Correspondence: npedro@ipcb.pteng
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this study was to design an approach for establishing a plausible relationship between FWI and the monthly average burned area (ABA) and the average number of ignitions (ANI) supported by geographic information systems (GIS). The application of these results will allow the projection of burned areas in forest fires in the future, making mitigation actions possible. This approach was applied to the region of Central Portugal, and to achieve the aims of the study, the following steps were completed: (1) geoprocessing the spatial data of the daily FWI indices, burned area and number of fire ignitions and (2) developing statistical regression models capable of reproducing the variability in burned area and ignition occurrence series from FWI data during the 2001–2017 period. The predicted equations for the burned area as a function of the FWI presented high coefficients of determination for most of the considered periods, thus allowing the projection, with a high degree of confidence, of the monthly burned area values according to the various future climate scenarios. The prediction of the average number of ignitions from the FWI values class proved to be effective for establishing highly adjusted forecast models for July and August. In the spatial analysis at the district level, the ABA and ANI estimation equations were obtained from the FWI values with determination coefficients above 0.90 for most of the districts. Significant differences were observed between the districts in the number of ignitions analysed.eng
dc.identifier.issn2228-4907
dc.identifier.publicationAgronomy Research, 2024, vol. 22, no 3, pp. 1146–1159eng
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10492/9472
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.15159/ar.24.073
dc.publisherEstonian University of Life Scienceseng
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)eng
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesseng
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectburned areaeng
dc.subjectclimateeng
dc.subjectfire occurrenceeng
dc.subjectFWI systemeng
dc.subjectwildfireseng
dc.subjectarticleseng
dc.titleAnalysis of the relationship between the weather index of fire danger and occurrences of rural fires. Case study: centro region of Portugaleng
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleeng

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