How warming and other stressors affect zooplankton abundance, biomass and community composition in shallow eutrophic lakes
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Kuupäev
2020
Kättesaadavus
Ajakirja pealkiri
Ajakirja ISSN
Köite pealkiri
Kirjastaja
Springer Nature
Abstrakt
We aimed to investigate the influence of environmental factors and predict zooplankton
biomass and abundance in shallow eutrophic lakes. We employed time series of zoo-
plankton and environmental parameters that were measured monthly during 38 years in a
large, shallow eutrophic lake in Estonia to build estimates of zooplankton community
metrics (cladocerans, copepods, rotifers, ciliates). The analysis of historical time series
revealed that air temperature was by far the most important variable for explaining
zooplankton biomass and abundance, followed, in decreasing order of importance, by
pH, phytoplankton biomass and nitrate concentration. Models constructed with the best
predicting variables explained up to 71% of zooplankton biomass variance. Most of the
predictive variables had opposing or antagonistic interactions, often mitigating the effect
of temperature. In the second part of the study, three future climate scenarios were
developed following different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tem-
perature projections and entered into an empirical model. Simulation results showed that
only a scenario in which air temperature stabilizes would curb total metazooplankton
biomass and abundance. In other scenarios, metazooplankton biomass and abundance
would likely exceed historical ranges whereas ciliates would not expand. Within the
metazooplankton community, copepods would increase in biomass and abundance,
whereas cladocerans would lose in biomass but not in abundance. These changes in the
zooplankton community will have important consequences for lake trophic structure and
ecosystem functioning.
This research was supported by the Estonian Research Council Grants PSG32, PRG709 and institutional research funding IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research.
This research was supported by the Estonian Research Council Grants PSG32, PRG709 and institutional research funding IUT 21-2 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research.
Kirjeldus
Märksõnad
multiple stressors, warming, zooplankton, shallow lake, empirical modelling, interactions, articles