Nitrate as a predictor of cyanobacteria biomass in eutrophic lakes in a climate change context
Laen...
Kuupäev
2022
Kättesaadav alates
19.11.2023
Ajakirja pealkiri
Ajakirja ISSN
Köite pealkiri
Kirjastaja
Elsevier
Abstrakt
We aimed to predict cyanobacteria biomass and nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in Lake Võrtsjärv, a large, shallow,
and eutrophic lake in Estonia. We used a model chain based on the succession of a mechanistic (INCA-N) model
and an empirical, generalized linear model. INCA-N model calibration and validation was performed with long
term climate and catchment parameters. We constructed twelve scenarios as combinations of climate forcing
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 3 scenarios), land conversion (forest to agriculture,
2 scenarios), and fertilizer use (2 scenarios).Models predicted 46% of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass and
65% of that of NO₃ concentrations. The model chain simulated that scenarios comprising both forest conversion
to agricultural lands and a greater use of fertilizer per surface area unit would cause increases in lacustrine NO₃ (up to twice the historicalmean) and cyanobacteria biomass (up to a four-fold increase compared to the historical
mean). The changes in NO₃ concentrations and cyanobacteria biomass were more pronounced in low and
moderate warming scenarios than in high warming scenarios because of increased denitrification rates in a
warmer climate. Our findings show the importance of reducing anthropogenic pressures on lake catchments in
order to reduce harmful pollutant and microalgae proliferation, and highlight the counterintuitive effects of
multiple stressor interactions on lake functioning.
This research was supported by Estonian Research Council grants PSG32, PRG709, and PRG1167, by the European Regional Development Fund through EstonianUniversity of Life Sciences ASTRA project “Valuechain based bio-economy”, by the European Union H2020 WIDESPREAD grant 951963 (TREICLAKE) and by the Estonian Scholarship Programme for international students, researchers and academic staff (Archimedes). We are grateful for the assistance of Sirje Vilbaste for advice during the modelling process.
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151807.
This research was supported by Estonian Research Council grants PSG32, PRG709, and PRG1167, by the European Regional Development Fund through EstonianUniversity of Life Sciences ASTRA project “Valuechain based bio-economy”, by the European Union H2020 WIDESPREAD grant 951963 (TREICLAKE) and by the Estonian Scholarship Programme for international students, researchers and academic staff (Archimedes). We are grateful for the assistance of Sirje Vilbaste for advice during the modelling process.
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151807.
Kirjeldus
Article history: Received 10 August 2021; Received in revised form 21 October 2021; Accepted 15 November 2021; Available online 20 November 2021; Editor: Yolanda Pico
Märksõnad
eutrophication, nitrogen, land use, cyanobacteria, empirical modelling, fertilizer, catchment model, articles