Effect of changing in weather conditions on Eastern Mediterranean coastal lagoon fishery
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Kuupäev
2021
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Ajakirja pealkiri
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Kirjastaja
Elsevier
Abstrakt
Climate change shows itself in many different ways on marine life. The fishery is also a part of
marine life and affected by climate change-driven weather conditions directly or indirectly. In the
present study, relationships between commercial species (grey mullet -≈90% of total capture- and
gilthead seabream) that were captured from lagoon traps in Köyceğiz lagoon (Turkey) and local
weather conditions were analysed. The machine learning method Random Forests (RF) was used to
pre-select the model predictors. RF results showed that while temperature-related parameters, cloudy
days, and wind speed were the most effective parameters, precipitation-parameters were the least
important parameters for these two species catch. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were applied to
each fish species with the best pre-selected parameters, with the resulting equation being used for
future prediction of the two fish species. Future prediction of predictors was calculated by monthly
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and 20th/80th percentile intervals were used as the
scenarios. Simulations showed that an increase in some weather parameters (wind speed, seawater
temperature, maximum air temperature, cloudy days) lead to an increase in grey mullet and (wind
speed) gilthead seabream catch. Models proved that the impact of the weather parameters differs
for those two targeted fish species although they live in the same environment. We recommend
that individual fish species (and/or catch) should be used in the models, not the whole fish yield.
Moreover, the model can also be used for non-commercial species in ecosystem-based studies. Changes
in weather parameters due to climate change should be monitored to make proper decision on fishery
management.
This research was funded by Estonian Environmental Investment Centre project T180209PKKH and Estonian Research Council Grants PRG709, PSG32.
This research was funded by Estonian Environmental Investment Centre project T180209PKKH and Estonian Research Council Grants PRG709, PSG32.
Kirjeldus
Märksõnad
climate change, generalized linear models, Turkish lagoon fishery, meteorology, Eastern Mediterranean, articles