Kinnisvaraturu nõuldus- ja pakkumispoolsete tegurite analüüs kui tööriist hinnamulli tuvastamiseks Eesti korteromandite näitel
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Kuupäev
2017
Kättesaadav alates
Autorid
Zoober, Sirgit
Ajakirja pealkiri
Ajakirja ISSN
Köite pealkiri
Kirjastaja
Eesti Maaülikool
Abstrakt
Eesti korteromandite hinnad on 2016. aasta lõpu seisuga saavutanud sama taseme, mida
viimati nähti eelmise kinnisvara hinnamulli lõpus 2007. aastal. Viimase hinnamulli lõhkemine
põhjustas Eesti elanikele ning ettevõtetele suurt majandusliku kahju, millest taastumine
võttis aastaid aega. Käesoleva bakalaureuse töö eesmärk on selgitada, kas 2016. aasta
lõpu seisuga on Eesti korteromandite turul näha hinnamullile viitavaid märke. Eesmärgi
saavutamiseks analüüsitakse erinevaid varasemas kirjanduses kasutatud nõudlus- ja
pakkumispoolseid tegureid ning Eesti korteromandite mediaanhinda graafiliselt. Andmed
pärinevad põhiliselt Maa-Ametist, Eesti Statistka andmebaasist ning Eesti Pangast.
Analüüsi tulemusena järeldati, et kuigi korteromandite mediaanhinnad on 2016. aasta
seisuga saavutanud eelmise hinnamulli lõpuga sama taseme, ei ole näha selgeid hinnamullile
viitavaid märke. Nõudluspoolsetest teguritest toetavad hindade kasvu elanike
reaalpalga kasv, madalad töötuse ja intressimäärad ning viimaste aastate positiivne SKT
kasvumäär. Pakkumispoolsetest teguritest toetavad senist hindade kasvu suurenenud
ehitushinnaindeks ning samuti on näha märke, et ehitussektor ja kinnisvaraarendajad on
reageerinud korteromandite suurenevale nõudlusele. Lisaks on näha korteromandite
suurenevat pakkumist lähiaastatel. Korteromandite tehingute arv olnud oluliselt väiksem
võrreldes eelmise hinnamulli aegse tasemega, mis viitab eufooria puudumisele ning
taskukohasuse indeks on olnud madal ja stabiilne.
Käesoleva töö tulemusi saab kasutada erinevate kinnisvarainvesteeringute või ostu- ja
müügiotsuste tegemisel.
Estonian apartment prices as of year end 2016 have reached the same level as were last seen during the peak of last real estate bubble during 2007. When the last bubble burst, it had a severe conomic impact on Estonian people and companies that took several years to recover from. The aim of this thesis is to clarify if any signs can be seen on the Estonian apartment market which would suggest a real estate bubble as of year end 2016. To achieve this aim, various demand and supply side factors, that have been used in literature, and Estonian apartment median prices are analyzed graphically. The data for analysis originates mainly from Estonian Land Board, Statistics Estonia and Bank of Estonia. It was found that even though Estonian apartment prices as of year end 2016 have reached the same level as last seen during the peak of the previous real estate bubble, there are no clear signs which would indicate the existence of bubble so far. Real wage growth, low unemployment and interest rates and steady GDP growth rate from the demand side factors support the apartment price growth. From the supply side factors, higher construction costs support the apartment price growth and it can be seen that the construction and development sectors have reacted to the increase in demand. Moreover, increasing supply of new apartments can be seen in the coming years. In addition, the number of apartment transactions has been considerably lower compared to last bubble, which suggests a lack of euphoria in the market and the affordability index has been low and stable. The results from this thesis can be used in making different real estate investment, purchase or sale decision.
Estonian apartment prices as of year end 2016 have reached the same level as were last seen during the peak of last real estate bubble during 2007. When the last bubble burst, it had a severe conomic impact on Estonian people and companies that took several years to recover from. The aim of this thesis is to clarify if any signs can be seen on the Estonian apartment market which would suggest a real estate bubble as of year end 2016. To achieve this aim, various demand and supply side factors, that have been used in literature, and Estonian apartment median prices are analyzed graphically. The data for analysis originates mainly from Estonian Land Board, Statistics Estonia and Bank of Estonia. It was found that even though Estonian apartment prices as of year end 2016 have reached the same level as last seen during the peak of the previous real estate bubble, there are no clear signs which would indicate the existence of bubble so far. Real wage growth, low unemployment and interest rates and steady GDP growth rate from the demand side factors support the apartment price growth. From the supply side factors, higher construction costs support the apartment price growth and it can be seen that the construction and development sectors have reacted to the increase in demand. Moreover, increasing supply of new apartments can be seen in the coming years. In addition, the number of apartment transactions has been considerably lower compared to last bubble, which suggests a lack of euphoria in the market and the affordability index has been low and stable. The results from this thesis can be used in making different real estate investment, purchase or sale decision.
Kirjeldus
Bakalaureusetöö
Geodeesia, maakorraldus ja kinnisvara planeerimise erialal
Märksõnad
bakalaureusetööd, kinnisvaratsüklid, korteriomandid, kinnisvaraturg, hinnamull