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2. Magistritööd

Selle kollektsiooni püsiv URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10492/2498

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Sirvi 2. Magistritööd Märksõna "African swine fever" järgi

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  • Pisipilt
    Kirje
    Sensitivity of African swine fever surveillance system for wild boar in Estonia
    (Eesti Maaülikool, 2022) Breukers, Eveliina Anni Maria; Viltrop, Arvo
    African swine fever is a viral disease of domestic pigs and wild boar, causing huge economic losses in pig industry. The main aim of the study was to investigate the sensitivity of African swine fever surveillance system implemented for wild boar in Estonia on county level, based on ASF surveillance data from Estonian Veterinary and Food Authority. More specifically, the study wanted to assess if the number of sampled wild boar is sufficient to detect ASF in counties, where ASF positive animals have not been detected and what is the confidence of disease freedom in counties where ASF positive cases have not been detected over longer time periods. The data was analysed from 15 Estonian counties from 2018 to 2021. In total 26 449 wild boar samples were analysed. The data was analysed in EpiTools by using “Simple riskbased surveillance - calculation of surveillance sensitivity” calculator to calculate the surveillance system sensitivity on single county level for every year of the study period and then “Confidence of population freedom for multiple time periods” calculator was used to calculate the confidence of freedom for single and multiple time periods in every county using the outputs from sensitivity analysis. The results indicated that 64.8% of the time periods, the surveillance sensitivity reached the sufficient level (>95%). Simple cumulative confidence of freedom was sufficient (>95%) for 75.9% of the time periods and reached >95% by the end of the whole observation period for all counties, whereas equilibrium cumulative confidence of freedom, which is dependent on probability of introduction (set at 10%), didn’t reach sufficient level in any time period being 90% at maximum.